prediction model
Adaptive Gaussian Process Search for Simulation-Based Sample Size Estimation in Clinical Prediction Models: Validation of the pmsims R Package
Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan, Shamsutdinova, Diana, Markham, Sarah, Zimmer, Felix, Stahl, Daniel, Forbes, Gordon, Carr, Ewan
Background: Determining an adequate sample size is essential for developing reliable and generalisable clinical prediction models, yet practical guidance on selecting appropriate methods remains limited. Existing analytical and simulation-based approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions and focus on mean-based criteria. We present and validate pmsims, an R package that uses Gaussian process surrogate modelling to provide a flexible and computationally efficient simulation-based framework for sample size determination across diverse prediction settings. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive simulation study with two aims. First, we compared three search engines implemented in pmsims: a Gaussian process-based adaptive method, a deterministic bisection method, and a hybrid approach, across binary, continuous, and survival outcomes. Second, we benchmarked the best-performing pmsims engine against existing analytical (pmsampsize) and simulation-based (samplesizedev) methods, evaluating recommended sample sizes, computational time, and achieved performance on large independent validation datasets. Results: The Gaussian process-based method consistently produced the most stable sample size estimates, particularly in low-signal, high-dimensional settings. In benchmarking, pmsims achieved performance close to prespecified targets across all outcome types, matching simulation-based approaches and outperforming analytical methods in more challenging scenarios. Conclusions: pmsims provides an efficient and flexible framework for principled sample size planning in clinical prediction modelling, requiring fewer model evaluations than non-adaptive simulation approaches.
- Research Report > New Finding (0.94)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.93)
- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Allegheny County > Pittsburgh (0.04)
- North America > United States > California > San Mateo County > San Mateo (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Directed Networks > Bayesian Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty (0.92)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Optimization (0.68)
- (2 more...)
- Europe > Slovenia > Drava > Municipality of Benedikt > Benedikt (0.04)
- North America > United States (0.04)
- Europe > France > Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur > Alpes-Maritimes > Nice (0.04)
- North America > United States > California (0.04)
- South America > Paraguay > Asunción > Asunción (0.04)
- North America > Montserrat (0.04)
- Europe > Germany > Bavaria > Lower Franconia > Würzburg (0.04)
- Research Report > New Finding (1.00)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Large Language Model (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Decision Tree Learning (1.00)
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
- North America > United States > Florida > Palm Beach County > Boca Raton (0.04)
- North America > United States > California > San Diego County > San Diego (0.04)
- (2 more...)
- North America > United States (0.04)
- Europe > Finland > Uusimaa > Helsinki (0.04)
- South America > Brazil > Maranhão (0.04)
- North America > United States > New York (0.04)
- Europe > France (0.04)
- Information Technology > Security & Privacy (0.93)
- Health & Medicine (0.67)
- Europe > Austria > Vienna (0.14)
- Europe > Netherlands > North Holland > Amsterdam (0.04)
- North America > Canada > Alberta > Census Division No. 15 > Improvement District No. 9 > Banff (0.04)
- (6 more...)